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Who will win the US election 2016? Will Clinton or Trump become the next US president?

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Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are locked in a battle for the presidency

Clinton has taken a five point lead in the presidential race, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll.

But the same poll last week put Trump is a point ahead of the former First Lady due to the fallout of the latest email scandal.

Clinton’s double-digit lead collapsed this month following the revelation that the FBI had found more of her emails.

But the FBI has now cleared her of criminality, even though she carelessly used a private server during her time as Secretary of State.

Nevertheless the FBI announcement about the new emails has proved to be a bombshell for the Clinton campaign.

It meant that public attention was turned away from a damaging 2005 recording in which Trump bragged about groping women.

The candidates are now neck-and-neck in the race with only a day to go.

Back in the summer the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said there was a two in three chance that Clinton will enter the White House.

Joseph Lake, head of forecasting at EIU, has always said that Clinton is expected to win the election because her billionaire rival is even more unpopular than her.

He said: “We have called it the unpopularity contest. These are two extremely unpopular candidates. They are much more unpopular than candidates in past elections.”

Favourability ratings

Favourability ratings of presidential nominees, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit

He argued that Clinton was more successful than Trump’s Republican rivals at attacking his mixed business record and controversial statements.

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The primetime TV debates in recent weeks were an opportunity for Clinton to turn up the heat on Trump in person for the first time.

Trump has caused controversy by calling for a huge wall on the border of Mexico and pushing for the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in the US.

Mr Lake said: “Trump has done everything he can to alienate and offend a lot of minority voters – that will backfire on him in November.”

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The current stability of the economy under Democratic President Barack Obama is likely to help propel her to the White House.

The electoral maths also favours Mrs Clinton because she only needs to win two or three of the swing states, according to the EIU.

It is estimated that Mr Trump would have to win seven of these swing states in order to get the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.

WHICH ARE THE SWING STATES THAT COULD WIN OR LOSE IT FOR CLINTON AND TRUMP?

US electoral mapEconomist Intelligence Unit

Here is a look at the US electoral map, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit

Mr Lake said: “The reality is a lot of states will vote for the Republican or Democrat. Nine states are up for grabs that can really swing to Clinton or Trump.”

One of the key states to watch is Florida after George W Bush’s controversial victory in 2000 and Mr Obama’s win by less than 1% of the vote in 2012.

Mr Lake said that the Republican reality TV star was less organised on the ground and relied on campaign tactics such as speaking on TV.

Back in July he said: “Clinton is much more organised at this stage of the campaign. Her campaign machine is really in full stride across the country.”

http://www.express.co.uk/
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